Analysis of Recent Dynamic Changes of Jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland, using a Thermomechanical Model

Jakobshavn Isbrae is a major marine terminating outlet glacier of the western Greenland Ice Sheet, which has been undergoing widespread acceleration and strong mass loss since the disintegration of its floating ice tongue in the late 1990s. The underlying mechanisms are poorly understood despite a wealth in observational and modelling studies. This doctoral thesis analyses the dynamic changes of Jakobshavn Isbrae using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a state-of-the-art finite-element ice flow model. Two missing model features for 1) the modelling the polythermal regime of glaciers and ice sheets, and 2) the dynamic evolution of its horizontal calving front position are designed and implemented into ISSM. A three-dimensional, thermodynamically coupled model of Jakobshavn Isbrae is set up and calibrated using modern observational data products. Low basal drag in the trough under the ice stream requires that its high driving stress is balanced by lateral drag in the shear margins, which allows for high flow velocities, as the ice viscosity is strain-rate-dependent. The developed modules are applied to the glacier model, which captures 90% of the observed changes from 1985 to 2015. Analysis of the model results reveals that calving front retreat is able to trigger widespread inland acceleration due to a rheological ice viscosity drop in the shear margins. Thermal feedbacks contribute 5 to 10% to the total acceleration. The study shows that Jakobshavn Isbrae will continue to contribute to eustatic sea level rise for at least the next century due to ongoing geometry adjustment to the new calving front position. Future fields of research include deriving a suitable calving rate parametrisation for large-scale ice flow models, a material law for temperate ice with a microscopic water content larger than 1%, and technical refinements of the modules developed for this thesis

Analyse der Rezenten Dynamischen Änderungen des Jakobshavn Isbrae, Westgrönland, mittels eines Thermomechanischen Modells

Jakobshavn Isbrae is a major marine terminating outlet glacier of the western Greenland Ice Sheet, which has been undergoing widespread acceleration and strong mass loss since the disintegration of its floating ice tongue in the late 1990s. The underlying mechanisms are poorly understood despite a wealth in observational and modelling studies. This doctoral thesis analyses the dynamic changes of Jakobshavn Isbrae using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a state-of-the-art finite-element ice flow model. Two missing model features for 1) the modelling the polythermal regime of glaciers and ice sheets, and 2) the dynamic evolution of its horizontal calving front position are designed and implemented into ISSM. A three-dimensional, thermodynamically coupled model of Jakobshavn Isbrae is set up and calibrated using modern observational data products. Low basal drag in the trough under the ice stream requires that its high driving stress is balanced by lateral drag in the shear margins, which allows for high flow velocities, as the ice viscosity is strain-rate-dependent. The developed modules are applied to the glacier model, which captures 90% of the observed changes from 1985 to 2015. Analysis of the model results reveals that calving front retreat is able to trigger widespread inland acceleration due to a rheological ice viscosity drop in the shear margins. Thermal feedbacks contribute 5 to 10% to the total acceleration. The study shows that Jakobshavn Isbrae will continue to contribute to eustatic sea level rise for at least the next century due to ongoing geometry adjustment to the new calving front position. Future fields of research include deriving a suitable calving rate parametrisation for large-scale ice flow models, a material law for temperate ice with a microscopic water content larger than 1%, and technical refinements of the modules developed for this thesis

Modelling the dynamic response of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, to calving rate perturbations

Calving is a major means of ice discharge of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. The breaking off of icebergs changes the ice front configuration of marine terminating glaciers, which affects the stress regime of their upstream areas. Recent observations show the close correlation between the ice front position and the behaviour of many outlet glaciers. However, modelling of a glacier subject to calving poses various challenges. No universal calving rate parametrisation is known, and tracking of a moving ice front and the related boundary conditions in two or three spatial dimensions is non-trivial. Here, we present the theoretical and technical framework for a Level-Set Method, an implicit boundary tracking scheme, which we implemented into the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The scheme allows us to study the dynamic response of a drainage basin to user-defined front ablation rates. We apply the method in a suite of experiments to Jakobshavn Isbræ, a major marine terminating outlet glacier of the western Greenland Ice Sheet. The model robustly reproduces the high sensitivity of the glacier to frontal ablation in form of calving. We find that enhanced calving is able to trigger significant acceleration of the ice stream. Upstream acceleration is sustained through a combination of various feedback mechanisms. However, lateral stress and ice influx into the trough are able to stabilise the ice stream. This study contributes to the present discussion on causes and effects of the continued changes occurring at Jakobshavn Isbræ, and emphasises that the incorporation of seasonal calving and dynamic lateral effects is key for realistic model projections of future global sea level rise on centennial time scales